BILLS
OUTLOOK
by James R. Miller
I know it is customary
for the opinion writer to save the exegesis of his column's
name for the farewell installment, but given the potentially
painful associations of the phrase "Wide Right" for many Buffalo
sports fans, I thought it best to make my intentions clear
from the outset.
There are of course those who feel that the
ghost of Scott Norwood is best left stowed away in the attic
of our collective mind, that dredging up such bitter memories
at this late date will only lead to ever greater bitterness.
I could not disagree more. Such a head-in-the-sand attitude
will only leave us woefully unprepared when such a moment
of truth once again presents itself.
In fact, we would do well to take examine
how Mr. Norwood himself handled the situation following his
1991 Super Bowl failure. Rather than replaying the situation
over and over in his mind and letting it become an obstacle
to his future development, the place-kicker went on with his
life. He left Buffalo later that year, and today is a well-contented
insurance agent in the suburban Washington area of Virginia.
Buffalo, meanwhile, muddled on rather aimlessly
in the wake of Mr. Norwood's missed field goal. Although the
Bills made it back to the Super Bowl in each of the three
following years, each time they were systematically demolished
by representatives of the then-dominant NFC East. Salary cap
woes and a roster of aging veterans led to even more woeful
results in the years since.
The lesson here is obvious: the sensible
player knows not to throw good effort after bad and recognizes
when it is time to get out of what is quite clearly a bankrupt
situation. As the wise carpenter says, better to tear down
and start anew than to perform superficial cosmetic repairs
on a structure whose foundation is ruined. The rat who flees
a sinking ship may seem selfish and cruel, but only from the
perspective of those foolish enough to stay behind and slowly
perish.
Still, it is not too late for this city and
its beloved football franchise. And the way out lies in the
true meaning of "Wide Right." In short, we must adhere to
traditional, conservative values while subtly adapting them
to meet the requirements of modern realities. Nothing can
alter the fundamental truth that strong defense and veteran
leadership wins championships. But now that free agency is
no longer in its infancy, we must adopt a slightly different
approach in our off-season transactions. The signing of high-priced
marquee players must be balanced with bargain pickups of key
role players.
This of course is an approach that worked
wonders for the New England Patriots, a divisional rival and,
until last season, a team that had good reason to feel every
bit as jinxed as our own Bills. And yet that team rode all
the way to the championship on the shoulders of an untested
backup signal caller and an unlikely assortment of free agent
pickups that no one else seemed to want. And surely it is
no coincidence that Adam Vinatieri's field goal on the Super
Bowl's final play to beat the heavily favored St. Louis Rams
was from 47 yards out—just like the one Mr. Norwood
missed those 11 years ago.
The Bills and their fans would be wise to
view this as a positive omen as we head into the upcoming
season.
Was the Bills' Losing Season Really Bad?
I know that a lot of people were disappointed
with the Bills' 3-13 regular season mark last year, but where
did the expected victories disappear to? I'm not sure exactly
what happened with the Bills, but I suspect that many of those
13 losses were the result of imprudent trades on the free-agency
market. This means that the victories the Bills failed to
achieve were not wasted, but rather transferred to someone
else.
Consider two hypothetical NFL teams that
experienced disappointed losing seasons. One team wasted tens
of millions constructing useless luxury boxes that no one
will ever use and signing aging veterans who can no longer
compete at a high level. This team reduced the value of the
franchise and its supporting community by wasting resources.
Now consider a second team whose season went
down the crapper because it made a free-agency market bet
with another team (let's call it the third team) that certain
players' effectiveness would rise when it really fell, and
vice versa. The second team did not waste resources, because
its expected victories were enjoyed by this third team.
While I'm not entirely sure which team more
closely represents the Buffalo Bills, I suspect it might be
the second. Likewise, the third team appears to be a reasonably
good approximation of the New England Patriots. For example,
Bills castoff Antowain Smith was a key element in that latter
team's unexpected triumph.
Thus, the way to that elusive championship
is elementary: the Bills must turn the tables on the Patriots,
who now have nowhere to go but down. The much ballyhooed signing
of quarterback Drew Bledsoe must then be a key element of
this strategy.
But Is Bledsoe the Solution?
This, unfortunately, is a question with no
easy answer. The eternal optimist will surely be quick to
point out that one man's garbage is another man's treasure,
but I'm inclined to be a bit more skeptical on the matter.
Is it really reasonable to expect that New England, which
was so flawless in its decision-making last year, would now
be so frivolous as to give up the player with the skills to
carry a division rival to victory? Probably not. But then
again, stranger things have happened when a perennial underdog
has suddenly found itself the king of the hill.
We may argue back and forth on the subject
all we like, but ultimately the victor is decided on the field
of play. As for which will be the last team standing at the
end of this upcoming season, only time will tell.
Born and raised in Hamburg,
James R. Miller is currently doing post-doctoral work in economics
at London School of Economics. His column on the Buffalo sports
scene will appear in this space each issue.
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